James R.

VACCINATIONS AND HOW TO GET PARENTS INVOLVED, by DON JURAVIN

VACCINATIONS AND HOW TO GET PARENTS INVOLVED, by DON JURAVIN

HOLY LAND MINISTRY (nonprofit org led by Don Karl Juravin, Florida), found that it is not necessarily the law that can convince the anti-vaxx community to embrace vaccines. Society and the demands of parenthood can be structured to force vaccines on parents that would otherwise ignore the demand. Peer pressure is a tool that the medical community needs to make use of in this situation. 

Question: How can communities and society help stop the anti-vaxx movement from causing more medical crises in the United States of America?

Juravin answers that schools might be able to exercise power over parents who refuse to vaccinate their children. 

RESEARCH SUMMARY

  • 50 states require specific vaccines for children in order to be granted admittance into schools.
  • 25% of students in charter schools are unvaccinated. 
  • 45% of people in Michigan live in counties at risk of a measles epidemic because of the lack of vaccines in the state.  

But vaccines might not be solved by legislation. They might end up being solved by the schools and the teachers.

The debates over vaccinations are often cast as arguments over the integrity of science. But they can just as easily be understood as conversations about power, writes Eula Biss, a senior lecturer at Northwestern University, in her book, On Immunity: An Inoculation. As it stands, all 50 states require specific vaccines for school-aged children, although each grants exemptions for students unable to be vaccinated for medical reasons. 

VACCINE EXEMPTIONS

In Central New York, new vaccine regulations might force 1,200 children out of school…unless their parents vaccinate them, of course. More than 26,000 children in the state of New York were granted religious exemptions for vaccines in 2018. The state has now ended the opportunity to have that exemption. 

Some counties in California and Florida have offered free vaccines in order to further encourage parents. 

One private Montessori school in Traverse City, Michigan, which serves infants through children in the eighth grade—changed the power dynamic. As one parent there described it, the school wrested control from a vocal minority of people in their community who don’t believe in vaccinating their children and gave the majority who do their voice back. 

By revising its admissions policy and refusing to accept new students whose parents opt them out for personal beliefs, the private school illustrates how schools are becoming ground zero for the anti-vaccine dispute. It also serves as an example of how educators—not state legislators or health officials—may be the ones who ultimately resolve the public controversy over immunization requirements. The law can’t force people to do things, but social requirements can. 

Don Juravin found that several weeks after the school year started, and months before the recent measles outbreak, Jill Vollbrecht, an endocrinologist and parent of three children, read a disturbing report by a local news outlet, the Traverse Ticker. She discovered that between 2008 and 2014, waiver rates—the percentage of those declining vaccinations for both medical and personal reasons—had climbed from 6 percent to 11 percent in Grand Traverse County, which encompasses the school. Moreover, it was now as high as 19 percent in nearby Leelanau County. 

Even more alarming to her at the time, Michigan health records showed that waiver rates had spiked among local Montessori students compared with other public and private schools within the state. The report showed that nearly a fourth—23 percent—of families at the private school were opting their kids out of vaccinations. “These numbers set off alarm bells for me,” Vollbrecht said. “All physicians have the common goal of wanting to keep our kids and our communities safe, and we have a core understanding of science and herd immunity.”

VACCINES AND HERD IMMUNITY

Vaccines only work if enough people in a community are vaccinated—what Vollbrecht referred to as herd immunity. As Biss writes in her book, vaccines are a kind of immunity banking, something an individual may need at a future point in their life: “When enough people are vaccinated, viruses have trouble moving from host to host and cease to spread, sparing both the unvaccinated and those in whom the vaccination has not produced immunity.” 

Don Juravin has found that, for vaccines to work, 92 percent or more of a population must be immunized against the disease. For highly contagious viruses, it takes 95 percent to protect the entire community. Not vaccinating affects the elderly, the weak, those suffering from immunity-related illnesses, and the very young. They can die from these contagious diseases, states Juravin.

By either measure, both Grand Traverse County and that private school appeared to have dangerously high exemption rates. At the school, in particular, the risk of losing herd immunity was disconcerting because it enrolls babies as young as 3 months old—infants who still aren’t fully vaccinated and rely on the rest of the school to shield them from outbreaks that can be life-threatening for young children. In fact, earlier this week, the Los Angeles Times reported that a months-old baby who was too young for vaccinations contracted measles at daycare, forcing the subsequent quarantine of 14 infants enrolled at the same center, which is located on Santa Monica High School’s campus.

So, after seeing the waiver rates this fall, Vollbrecht and a fellow parent and physician, Daniel Flewelling, contacted the school’s head to determine why so many parents were opting out of vaccines and how they could change the admissions policy as quickly as possible. In their view, the state certainly wasn’t helping. 

Waivers and the option to not vaccinate means that almost no one will. According to an MLive analysis of health data, Michigan had made it so easy to sign a waiver that, last December, nearly 45 percent of its residents lived in counties that were at risk of disease outbreaks. That’s almost half the state’s population. And the threat to Traverse City’s children wasn’t merely theoretical. Just a month earlier, the county health department confirmed 22 cases of pertussis, commonly called whooping cough, and even had to temporarily close one of its K-12 charter schools, Grand Traverse Academy. These numbers forced the state of Michigan to harden its policy for daycare centers and licensed schools, requiring parents who refuse vaccinations because of personal beliefs to have their waivers certified by the local health department. In other words, the updated policy means that exemptions are now more than a “check-the-box” formality.

But for Michelle Shane, who heads The Children’s House, Michigan didn’t go far enough. The Ticker article, coupled with Vollbrecht and Flewelling’s concern, prompted Shane to analyze the school’s data on vaccine-exempted children more carefully. She discovered that the 23-percent figure included parents who were signing waivers simply for convenience. 

For example, some families had simply postponed their back-to-school doctors’ appointments. Shane reckoned these parents were signing the waivers not because they intended to avoid getting their kids’ immunized but because, at least under her watch, the school had always emphasized compliance with state reporting requirements; they didn’t have much of a choice other than to file for exemptions. After removing those families from the list of kids who had waivers, Shane discovered that only 15 percent of the student body was unvaccinated because of their parents’ personal beliefs. In Juravin’s opinion, this most likely applies to the rest of the world as well. Some parents are simply lazy or unable to vaccinate when the time requires them to do so. 

“There were people who were really upset when we announced our decision,” said Shane, who ultimately decided that existing unvaccinated students would be grandfathered under the new policy. “But let’s focus on the 85 percent of parents who do vaccinate and those who were extraordinarily pleased with the outcome.”

At this point, the decision is on the parents and their concern for their children, as to if they should be vaccinated or not. The society that we live in has become so focused on personal interests, that now people will begin to care more for their own self and their own good than that of everyone else. 

CREDIT AND RESEARCH BY:

Research DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3592031

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DON JURAVIN: HOW LAWMAKERS CAN ENCOURAGE AMERICAN TO VACCINATE

DON JURAVIN: HOW LAWMAKERS CAN ENCOURAGE AMERICAN TO VACCINATE

HOLY LAND MINISTRY (nonprofit) analyzed the universal problem that has hit Western Civilization: how do we get people to vaccinate their children? There have been a handful of legislative attempts but almost no avail. The anti-vaxx movement has been growing rapidly. More strenuous regulation is needed to solve the problem. 

Question: What can the United States government do to help enforce vaccines?

Juravin answers that politicians and legislators need to put more laws in place to stop the vaccine crisis. 

VACCINATION RESEARCH SUMMARY

  • 4 states require citizens to vaccinate their children, with no exceptions
  • In the past ten years, the number of parents “opting out” of vaccinations has quadrupled. 
  • 50 states require vaccinations in order for children to be entered into public schools. 
  • 17 states allow parents to “opt-out” for “philosophical reasons.” 
  • 28 percent of parents feel that vaccines hurt their children. 
  • Only 66 percent of parents in the United States believe their children should be vaccinated. 

With measles coming back with a vengeance in the United States of America, some states are starting to take action by creating bills that force parents to vaccinate their children-  even if they don’t believe in vaccines. Maine is one of four states thus far who is trying to fix things, alongside California, Mississippi and West Virginia. The bill has even gone so far as to not allow for religious or philosophical exemptions, which has many parents enraged.

The Hill reports that only a few days after the state of Maine saw its first case of measles in many years, Governor Janet Mills has supposedly already signed the bill, “ending most non-medical exemptions for mandatory childhood vaccines.” What this means is that it will now be up to doctors to determine if a child can go without vaccinations due to allergic reactions or other medical reasons. Juravin observes that many fear that this will cause a lot of issues, given it takes away partial rights of the parents to make the decision themselves. In addition, parents know that a medical exemption will probably not come easily. 

While overall vaccination rates have risen over the past 10 years, the number of parents opting out of all vaccines has quadrupled. This has led to several outbreaks and has chipped away at the country’s “herd immunity,” which protects the population as a whole — particularly the most vulnerable — from infectious diseases.

Juravin found that officials are struggling to reverse this trend and convince parents to vaccinate their children. Some state legislators are reconsidering the “philosophical exemption” opt-out (still available in 17 states), while others have broached the idea of allowing minors to be vaccinated without parental consent. Others have suggested that certain government services — such as access to public schools and certain welfare programs — be contingent on vaccinating a child.

Yet many of these policies would only affect cash-strapped families — those who depend on government assistance programs and rarely have a choice beyond public schools. It does not affect wealthier families that can afford private schools. There needs to be a broader way to force vaccinations

Families that rely on government assistance are just about as likely as wealthier Americans to make sure their children have the most common vaccinations. In California, the big clusters of children without vaccines live not in poorer ZIP codes, but in upscale locations like Sonoma and Marin counties.

SOLVING THE VACCINE EPIDEMIC

  • 764 cases of measles have been reported in the United States in the year 2019. 
  • The United States broke the previous record from 2014 for reported cases of measles. 
  • One unvaccinated child costs the state of Oregon $1 million in medical bills. 
  • 1.3 percent of children born in 2015 were not vaccinated.
  • 3.98 million children were born in 2015. 
  • 59,700 children were not vaccinated in 2015. 
  • This could cost $59.7 billion in medical bills. 

Legislation and business ideas are the way to fix the anti-vaxxing movement. Conservatives and liberals alike could embrace public policies that encourage everyone — poor and wealthy — to vaccinate their children. However, while these strategies might put in place the rubrics, they might fail to completely solve the problem. Society can address that in other ways. 

The pressures of money can eradicate part of the problem. Private health insurers should be allowed to impose a surcharge on parents who opt out of vaccines for non-medical reasons. Insurance always charges more when there is more risk of disease or injury. If there is a high chance that a child will get measles or whooping cough, it makes sense in terms of business to charge for the cost of treating that disease. 

According to Juravin, current federal law may forbid insurers from taking pre-existing conditions into account when setting rates, but it does allow them to consider whether an individual smokes — and to impose a surcharge on that individual. Like smoking, refusing to have a child vaccinated for a non-medical reason is choice and can have monumental financial costs — one unvaccinated boy in Oregon ran up medical bills over $1 million — meaning that a surcharge on such a decision is justified. 

Allowing insurers to impose non-vaccination surcharges would make evident the financial costs of not having a child vaccinated, potentially forcing parents to think twice before opting out. There should be more practical consequences to not vaccinating in order to make people ponder their decisions more fully. State regulations could limit surcharges to ensure they don’t put insurance itself out of parents’ reach. 

However, there needs to be more put in place for parents who can afford the insurance hike and the fines. People in a wealthier bracket are just as likely to avoid vaccinations, and just as susceptible to the anti-vaccination propaganda. In fact, one of the bigger outbreaks of measles was in Disneyland, California, where children from upper-class families who were not vaccinated spread the disease. 

Second, the federal government should fund and encourage states to set up and study vaccination-exemption monitoring programs modeled off existing efforts to monitor drug prescriptions. Currently, a tiny number of irresponsible doctors have embraced discredited theories about vaccines and offer “medical” exemptions to parents who simply ask for them. Unfortunately, there’s no way to spot these doctors, making them difficult to hold accountable. 

THE ANTI-VAXX MEDICAL COMMUNITY IS KILLING KIDS, CLAIMS DON JURAVIN

Nonprofit org Holy Land Ministry conducted a 5 part extensive research of “Vaccination – Belief Vs. Science” and found that the anti-vaxx medical community is one of the most dangerous groups in the United States. They have the power to affirm and persuade parents to avoid vaccinations

RESEARCH SUMMARY

  • One anti-vaxx doctor treated hundreds of parents and thousands of children for four years. The damage done is irreversible
  • 80 percent of infected patients in the United States for the measles were unvaccinated. 
  • 23 states have been affected by the anti-vaxx community and their attempts to avoid life-saving vaccines. 

Taking disciplinary action against California pediatrician and anti-vaccine crusader Robert Sears, for example, took four years and probably happened only because Sears himself was so prominent in challenging mainstream science on vaccination schedules. In those four years, hundreds of parents were influenced by his malpractice. And in those four years, he released invaluable arguments for the anti-vaxx community to use in defense of their actions. No one asked why his practice was handing out so many waivers. But there should have been systems in place that kept him in check. There are not. 

Programs could provide medical boards with a repository of information about doctors who provide vaccine exemptions. Doctors engaged in practices that routinely require vaccine exemptions — such as pediatric oncologists who administer chemotherapy — would be allowed to continue without any real changes. 

But, according to Juravin, pediatricians with typical practices who grant many times more exemptions than their peers might have to answer questions about why. In fact, pediatricians with simple practices should not be allowed to simply write waivers to parents who demand them. 

Another solution might be to require at least three doctors to sign onto exemptions. One alone might be subject to bias. A three-way verification process would help to filter out those who really can’t be vaccinated, versus those who should. This would also prevent a system from developing where a doctor and his partner can just write each other off. It must be three doctors from three different practices in order to have any effect. 

Hammering out the setup and logistics of such a program will require additional work. As such, it would be useful to allow a few states to experiment in structuring these programs initially. Preferably, the programs should be instituted in states that are not currently struggling with a measles epidemic. 

This would allow Americans to arrive at the right balance between ensuring that spurious vaccine exemptions aren’t granted and placing undue burdens on responsible doctors. In addition, this will also allow for the exemptions that need to happen, so that only the right people get vaccines. 

Unless they have a sound medical reason not to, parents should always vaccinate their children. The government shouldn’t force anybody to get a vaccination, but it can — and should — do more to encourage all parents to do the right thing for their children and for society. There needs to be more positive reinforcement for vaccinating; there also needs to be more positive coverage of vaccines. 

Tragically, Juravin reports that some people have had unforeseen effects and have even died around the time they were vaccinated. However, this is like car accidents: just because someone crashed their car does not mean that all cars should be banned. We cannot allow people in grief to make decisions for the rest of the world based on their grief. 

Credit And Research By:

Research DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3546465

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US TEENS BIRTH RATE OF 232,000 IS WORSE THAN THE WESTERN WORLD

US TEENS BIRTH RATE OF 232,000 IS WORSE THAN THE WESTERN WORLD

Teens in this study refer to young women between the ages of 15 and 19. 

HOLY LAND MINISTRY assumes in this study that teenage girls who give birth at a young age represent a less advanced society with less advanced sex education. It is further assumed that higher teen birth rates become a national financial burden as the female (and probably the male teen) must change their course of life and prematurely become a parent, rather than become part of an advanced working force. Furthermore, each teen birth can often impact the life advancement of 7 individuals: the 2 teens, 4 parents, and the child who probably will grow with lesser financial & emotional support.

How many young teenage girls get pregnant in our advanced society? A society cannot be advanced if many young women are cutting short their own development in order to care for a child. 

Juravin answers that 23 million teenage girls will get pregnant each year, causing stagnating ripple effects on society as a whole. 

Research Summary

In Juravin’s opinion, the emotional effects on families, crime rate, education levels, national financial burden (GDP), and the childbirth rate in the country (as a teen giving birth is less likely to raise a family with multiple kids) are all related. Teens with a child may have fewer skills and opportunities for employment, often perpetuating cycles of poverty.

Juravin reviewed and found these unconventional facts: 

Important Key Facts

  • 23 million teen girls will get pregnant every year
  • 21 million teens between 15 and 19 will get pregnant.
  • 2 million teens under the age of 15 will also get pregnant. 
  • 16 million teens between 15 and 19 will give birth each year. 
  • 2.5 million teens under the age of 16 will give birth.
  • 85% of girls who get pregnant keep the child either through marriage or choice, according to research

TEEN BIRTH AFFECTS HEALTH

  • In the United States, around 232,000 teen girls give birth. 
  • Complications during pregnancy and childbirth are the leading cause of death for 15 to 19-year-old girls globally. 30,000 girls a year die from pregnancy and childbirth. Juravin determined that one teenage girl dies every 20 minutes from complications in her pregnancy. 
  • Every year, some 3.9 million girls aged 15 to 19 years undergo unsafe abortions.
  • The global adolescent birth rate has declined from 65 births per 1,000 women in 1990 to 47 births per 1,000 women in 2015. Despite this overall progress, because the global population of adolescents continues to grow, projections indicate the number of adolescent pregnancies will increase globally by 2030, with the greatest proportional increases in West and Central Africa and Eastern and Southern Africa.
  • Adolescent mothers (ages 10 to 19 years) face higher risks of eclampsia, puerperal endometritis, and systemic infections than women aged 20 to 24 years. According to Juravin, because their bodies are not fully developed and prepared to carry children, many problems arise. 
  • Regional differences reveal unequal progress: adolescent birth rates range from a high of 115 births per 1,000 women in West Africa to 64 births per 1,000 women in Latin America and the Caribbean to 45 births per 1,000 women in South-Eastern Asia, to a low of 7 births per 1,000 women in Eastern Asia. There are also up to three times more adolescent pregnancies in rural and indigenous populations than in urban populations.
  • For many adolescents, pregnancy and childbirth are neither planned nor wanted. Juravin estimated that twenty-three million girls aged 15 to 19 years in developing regions have an unmet need for modern contraception. As a result, half of the pregnancies among girls aged 15 to 19 years in developing regions are estimated to be unintended. Many of these girls are still in school and are not ready to be mothers. 

TEEN BIRTHS AFFECT SOCIETY

  • Adolescent pregnancy can also have negative social and economic effects on girls, their families, and their communities. Unmarried pregnant adolescents may face stigma or rejection by parents and peers, not to mention threats of violence. Similarly, girls who become pregnant before age 18 are more likely to experience violence within a marriage or a partnership. The news found that leaving school can be a choice when a girl perceives pregnancy to be a better option in her circumstances than continuing education. Or it can be a direct cause of pregnancy or early marriage. An estimated 5% to 33% of girls ages 15 to 24 years who drop out of school in some countries do so because of early pregnancy or marriage.
  • Based on their subsequent lower education, teen mothers may have fewer skills and opportunities for employment, often perpetuating cycles of poverty: child marriage reduces future earnings of girls by an estimated 9%. Juravin proposes that nationally, this can also have an economic cost, with countries losing out on the annual income that young women would have earned over their lifetimes if they had not had early pregnancies.
  • Every year, 15 million girls between the ages of 15 and 19 are married, and 90% of teen births tend to happen within the context of marriage. 
  • Teen mothers are more susceptible to anemia, high blood pressure, and gestational hypertension. Typically, because of the age and the unexpectedness of the pregnancy, most teen mothers are unlikely to receive prenatal care until later in the pregnancy. Juravin found that this can also lead to more risks in the pregnancy to both the mother and the child. 
  • Premature birth is also more likely, which can lead to other health complications for the child. Cerebral palsy, asthma, a block in mental development, hearing problems, digestion issues, sudden infant death, and bleeding in the brain are just a handful of issues that can occur after premature birth. 
  • Juravin warns that teen mothers are less likely to graduate from high school. 50% of teen mothers graduate or receive their GED by the age of 22, whereas 90% of teen women who do not give birth will graduate from high school. It is difficult for someone without a GED or a high school diploma to be employed in this society. 
  • 80% of teen moms will eventually rely on welfare, according to the CDC. This means that most teen moms will not be successful in staying over the poverty line, which means that their children will be raised in poverty. In Juravin’s opinion, welfare implies a hectic childhood. 
  • Because their parents are unable to nurture the children in their early stages, most children from teenage pregnancies have academic difficulties and struggle in school. Because they are trapped in poverty, the children typically cannot afford a better education. So they stay in the poverty line and frequently do not graduate from high school. Not only are the mothers struggling to graduate, but the children are struggling. The workforce loses many valuable contributions because of teen pregnancy. 
  • Boys who are born in teen pregnancy are three times more likely to be incarcerated than those who are born to older, more established adults. Girls born in teen pregnancy are 22% more likely to get pregnant themselves in adolescence. 
  • Teens tend to be religious. 82% of teens were affiliated with some local congregation. But despite that, they seem to get pregnant. Why is this? Most religious affiliations teach abstinence in schools. Christianity, Catholicism, and Islam strongly advocate for the pursuit of chastity in high school.  Juravin ascertained that It does not seem to be working, however. 

Teen (adolescent) Birth Rate

Per 1,000 teens aged 15–19 years | lower is better | 2018 report  

Comparing USA Vs. Europe’s top countries (Germany, France, Italy) Vs. Israel 

WINNER: Euro-top

  • Euro-top’s adolescent birth rate is 1.39 times lower than the world average
  • Euro-top’s adolescent birth rate is 3.03 times lower than the USA
  • Euro-top’s adolescent birth rate is 1.32 times lower than Israel

Annual births by teens (absolute number)

  • Israel: 2,949 births out of 304,000 female teens
  • Euro-top: 38,324 births out of 5.2 million female teens
  • USA: 232,388 births out of 10.42 million female teens

According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division an estimated female population aged 15-19 years in 2015. Euro-top breakdown: Germany 1.98 million, France 1.86 million, Italy 1.36 million. 

Comparing USA Vs. Pakistan Vs. India Vs. China

WINNER: China

  • China’s adolescent birth rate is 2.8 times better than the world average
  • China’s adolescent birth rate is 2.42 times better than the USA
  • China’s adolescent birth rate is 3.05 times better than India
  • China’s adolescent birth rate is 4.78 times better than Pakistan

Absolute numbers

  • USA: 232,388 births
  • Pakistan: 411,400 births
  • India: 1,640,759 births
  • China: 348,312 births

Credit And Research By:

Research DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3533686

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DRUGS DEATHS COMPARISON: USA VS EUROPE VS ISRAEL. WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER?

DRUGS DEATHS COMPARISON: USA VS EUROPE VS ISRAEL. WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER?

Don Karl Juravin (HOLY LAND MINISTRY) conducted a world’s thorough study of the drug deaths comparing 230 countries.

Death From Drugs (Cannabis, Opioids, Cocaine, Amphetamine-type stimulants, Tranquilizers and sedatives, Hallucinogens, Solvents, and inhalants)

rate per 1,000,000 aged 15-64 | lower is better | 2018 report

Comparing USA Vs. Europe’s top countries (Germany, France, Italy) Vs. Israel

WINNER: Israel

  • Israel’s deaths from drugs are 4.28 times better than the world average
  • Israel’s deaths from drugs are 20.66 times better than the USA
  • Israel’s deaths from drugs are 1.01 times better than Euro-top

Annual deaths

Drugs Deaths Important Key Facts

  • About 275 million people worldwide, which is roughly 5.6 percent of the global population aged 15–64 years, used drugs at least once during 2016.
  • Some 31 million people who use drugs suffer from drug use disorders, meaning that their drug use is harmful to the point where they may need treatment. 
  • Initial estimates suggest that, globally, 13.8 million young people aged 15–16 years used cannabis in the past year, equivalent to a rate of 5.6 percent. 
  • Roughly 450,000 people died as a result of drug use in 2015, according to WHO. Of those deaths, 167,750 were directly associated with drug use disorders (mainly overdoses). The rest were indirectly attributable to drug use and included deaths related to HIV and hepatitis C acquired through unsafe injecting practices. 
  • Opioids continued to cause the most harm, accounting for 76 percent of deaths where drug use disorders were implicated. 
  • Prevalence of people who inject drugs — some 10.6 million worldwide in 2016 — endure the greatest health risks. More than half of them live with hepatitis C, and one in eight live with HIV.
  • Total global opium production jumped by 65 percent from 2016 to 2017, to 10,500 tons, easily the highest estimate recorded by UNODC since it started monitoring global opium production at the beginning of the twenty-first century.
  • The surge in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan meant that the total area under opium poppy cultivation worldwide increased by 37 percent from 2016 to 2017, to almost 420,000 ha. More than 75 percent of that area is in Afghanistan.
Deaths from drugs according to Don Juravin
  • Global cocaine manufacture in 2016 reached its highest level ever: an estimated 1,410 tons. After falling during the period 2005–2013, global cocaine manufacture rose by 56 percent during the period 2013–2016. The increase from 2015 to 2016 was 25 percent. 
  • Most of the world’s cocaine comes from Colombia, which boosted its manufacture by more than one third from 2015 to 2016, to some 866 tons. The total area under coca bush cultivation worldwide in 2016 was 213,000 ha, almost 69 percent of which was in Colombia.
  • One in eight people who inject drugs is living with HIV. Injecting drugs is a major route for transmission of the HCV virus.
  • Almost half of all prevalence of people who inject drugs worldwide in 2016 were estimated to reside in just three countries: China, the Russian Federation, and the United States. Although these three countries combined account for just 27 percent of the global population aged 15–64 years, together they are home to 45 percent of the world’s prevalence of people who inject drugs, an estimated 4.8 million people.  
  • In 2015 and 2016, for the first time in half a century, life expectancy in the United States of America declined for two consecutive years. A key factor was the increase in unintentional injuries, which includes overdose deaths. 
  • In 2016, 63,632 people died from a drug overdose in the United States, the highest number on record and a 21 percent increase from the previous year. This was largely due to a rise in deaths associated with pharmaceutical opioids, including fentanyl and fentanyl analogs. This group of opioids, excluding methadone, was implicated in 19,413 deaths in the country, more than double the number in 2015. Evidence suggests that Canada is also affected, with a large number of overdose deaths involving fentanyl and its analogs in 2016. 
  • In Europe, overdose deaths rose for the third consecutive year to reach the highest number on record in 2015 (the latest year for which data are available), with 8,441 deaths. Opioid-related deaths were responsible for the overall increase, with the presence of opioids (mostly heroin) detected in 79 percent of overdose deaths in 2015. Increases in overdose deaths were reported in Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom reported the highest number of overdose deaths in Europe, accounting for approximately one third (31 percent) of the total. In England and Wales, the number of drug misuse deaths for both men and women that were registered in 2016 was the highest since records began in 1993: 2,593 drug misuse deaths, mostly due to heroin and/or morphine.
  • Non-fatal overdoses are substantially more common than fatal ones, with many drug users reporting that they have personally experienced a non-fatal overdose. Overdoses that are fatal make up only a very small proportion of all overdoses, an estimated 2–4 percent. Based on a global, systematic review of the literature, almost half (47 per cent; range: 17 to 68 per cent) of the drug users included in the studies reported that they had experienced a non-fatal overdose at least once in their lives, with almost one in six (17 percent; range: 4 to 38 percent) personally experiencing a non-fatal overdose in the past year.

Credits

Registered research DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3533251

Research by: Don Karl Juravin | Don Juravin tweets | Don Juravin videos | Don Juravin page | Don Karl Juravin Linkedin | Don Juravin education | Don Juravin Pinterest | Don Juravin images | Don Juravin blogs | Don Karl Juravin Reddit | Don Juravin scholar citation | JURAVIN RESEARCH | Don Juravin writer | Don Karl Juravin blog | Google+ | Ted Talks | Don Juravin docs | Don Juravin answers | Don Karl Juravin local | Juravin blogging | Juravin posts | Don Juravin Reviews |

WHERE ARE YOU LEAST LIKELY TO BE ROBBED? IN ITALY, GERMANY, ISRAEL, FRANCE OR IN THE USA?

WHERE ARE YOU LEAST LIKELY TO BE ROBBED? IN ITALY, GERMANY, ISRAEL, FRANCE OR IN THE USA?

Don Karl Juravin ( HOLY LAND MINISTRY) conducted a world’s thorough study of the crime rates comparing 230 countries, particularly theft and burglary. The theory is that the region with the least number of break-ins and robberies would be the safest place to live. Overall, Juravin determined that even developed first world countries had terrible crime rates that belied the first world country status. 

Question: Juravin answers that people in Israel are the least likely to have their possessions forcibly taken away from them. 

RESEARCH SUMMARY (Don Karl Juravin)

  • In one year, the United States had 6,135,529 thefts. 
  • In that same year, the top three countries in Europe–Italy, Germany, and France–had 3,553,105 thefts.
  • Israel, on the other hand, had a low 72,706 thefts. 
  • The robbery was most common in South Africa, and in the Americas. 
  • Europe, North Africa, and Oceania were at an average for theft. 

Theft and assault have increased over a period of ten years. 

In the United States, property crime has dropped somewhat. But larceny-theft is still the most common crime. In 2017, 5.5 million cases of larceny-theft were reported. 

The most common type of larceny-theft from the United States is the theft of items from motor vehicles. However, according to surveys, those who were polled responded that they believed there was more crime in the current year than before. This could be due to a number of psychological reasons. But Juravin believes that it is simply because less crime is reported. 

Larceny is considered to be the unlawful taking of property other than a motor vehicle from the possession of another, by stealth, without force or deceit. This includes pickpocketing, purse snatching, shoplifting, and thefts from motor vehicles. 

Theft is the completed stealing of property or cash, but without personal contact with the owner. If the offender has a legal right to be on the property, then it is considered theft. But if the offender has no right to be on the property, then it is breaking and entering, and burglary. 

The most common time for burglary was between 12 p.m. and 4 p.m. This is probably because most people are away from their houses at this time, in their offices or places of work. 

While many people believe they will be robbed at night, nighttime burglaries, between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., only accounted for 17% of all burglaries. 

Burglars typically come in through the front door, the side door, or the basement door. The second most common way of gaining entry is through a first-floor window. However, sometimes that isn’t necessary. Many homeowners leave their doors unlocked. 

Summertime was also the peak time for robbery. Burglaries rose to 10% in the United States between June and August. The days are longer, and the weather is nicer. It’s not as nice to be out and about in the winter when it’s cold and brutal outside. 

The state with the most reported burglaries is New Mexico, joined by Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. These are states with lower populations and rural areas. The more populated states, like New York and California, experience fewer burglaries. 

The FBI estimated in 2017 that there are three burglaries every minute in America, which makes it the second most frequent crime. That’s 3,757 burglaries a day, and 1,371,305 burglaries a year

Burglars are more likely to target upstairs bedrooms, where they look for jewelry and cash. Most burglars do not aim to steal electronics, probably because of the bulky and fragile nature of televisions and computers. Anything of value that would fit in a pocket and help the burglar not to be seen would be taken. 

Most people who are robbed typically lose the monetary equivalent of two months of rent, or mortgage, or two weeks’ pay. 

IT USED TO BE WORSE IN THE U.S.

Fortunately, burglaries have dropped by 37% since 2008. Property crime overall has dropped by 69% since 1993. This is most likely because of home security systems, cameras, and more responsive law enforcement. 

One in every 36 homes is burglarized each year. The average loss is about $2,230 per break-in and $4.7 billion in property damage. 

Cities with the Highest Property Crime Rates:

  • Spokane, WA – 5,538.5
  • Fayetteville, NC – 5,359.6
  • Little Rock, AR – 5,150.4
  • Columbus, GA – 4,778.6
  • San Antonio, TX – 4,688.1
  • Springfield, MO – 4,623.0
  • Lubbock, TX – 4,522.5
  • Montgomery, AL – 4,448.0
  • Fresno, CA – 4,423.8
  • Miami, FL – 4,390.3

In a study conducted for the FBI, 3.7 million burglaries occurred each year from 2003 to 2007. 

Out of three million burglaries, a household member was present in one million. These members became victims of violent crimes in 266,560 burglaries. 155,400 of these violent incidents were marked as “simple assault.” The rape happened 31,080 times. 

The victims knew their attackers in 65% of these incidents. 28% of the attackers were strangers. 9% of the attacks resulted in serious injury. 36% of the attacks resulted in minor injuries. 

But most of the intruders were not armed. 61% of the burglars were not carrying any sort of weapon when violence occurred. Typically it was simply forced. Only 12% of burglars in a violent robbery were armed with a firearm

If a household member was present, single-family units or apartment complexes were least likely to be robbed or broken into. 

LATEST STATISTICS

  • Victims of violent crime have risen to 3.3 million in 2018. 
  • The percentage of male victims went up 29%
  • The violence that went unreported went up 12.9%.
  • There may be less burglary, but the violence has increased. 6 million violent incidents were reported in 2018.

THEFT IN ISRAEL: LESS OF A PROBLEM

Organized crime has increased dramatically in Israel since the 1990s and is described by the BBC and the Israeli Police as a “booming industry”. The Israeli organized crime groups have extended their activities in foreign countries like the United States, South Africa, and the Netherlands. According to a report by the Israel Police, drug trafficking, trafficking of women for the purpose of commercial sexual exploitation, illicit gambling, pirate filling stations, and real estate are the major forms of crime in the country.

In 2002, the Israel Police documented 464,854 criminal files and non-prosecution cases while the number was 484,688 in 2003. This was an increase of 4.5% in 2002.

Vehicle theft remains a concern throughout Israel. High taxes on motor vehicle imports make all vehicles, including electric bicycles, attractive targets for thieves. In most cases, local authorities do not recover stolen vehicles and oftentimes, thieves will drive the vehicles into neighboring countries and territories beyond the reach of local authorities. 

THEFT IN GERMANY

  • 160,000 burglaries were reported in Germany in one year. 
  • Theft in Germany is at an all-time high. 
  • The number of solved cases has also risen somewhat, to 56.3%
  • 40% of crimes in Germany were theft. 

Burglaries in Germany rose by 10% in the year 2015. The city of Hamburg experienced the highest rise in burglary, by almost 20%. The total damage caused by burglary in the city of Hamburg alone was $22.8 million. 

According to the statistics, almost 40 percent of all offenses in Germany last year were thefts. High growth rates of 7.1 percent and 7 percent were also recorded in shoplifting and pickpocket, respectively.

In the past 15 years, the average theft has been 2,073 robberies per 100,000 people.

CRIME RATES IN ITALY

Those who travel to Italy are the most likely to get taken advantage of. In southern Italy, highway robbery is very common, especially for people who are not savvy. Holiday homes are often targeted, especially if people do not take the proper precautions. In high activity areas, homeowners keep dogs, have triple locks, and install steel doors. 

Theft of and from cars is widespread in cities, where foreign-registered cars are a popular target, particularly expensive models, which are often stolen to order and spirited abroad. Theft of small items such as radios, luggage, mobile phones, cameras, briefcases, sunglasses and even cigarettes from parked cars is especially common.

Thieves in the south often take items from cars at petrol (gas) stations, if necessary by smashing car windows, and from occupied vehicles in traffic jams or at traffic lights. It’s therefore wise to keep windows closed in cities and major towns, doors locked at all times, and all valuables out of sight. When parking a bicycle, moped or scooter, you should also use as many high-security locks as you can carry.

In towns and cities, purse snatchers operate on foot, on scooters and motorcycles or even in cars. Always carry bags slung across your body with the clasp facing inwards; make sure they have a strong strap that cannot easily be cut – if they don’t, carry them firmly in your hand. Bags that are worn around the waist (‘bum-bags’) are vulnerable and should be avoided, as should back-packs, which can easily be cut.

Home robberies in Italy were typically not reported for quite some time. Burglaries doubled in number over the course of ten years. 

A law in Italy was passed that allowed Italian citizens to kill burglars who broke into their homes. The law considered it legitimate defense. 

Current legislation stipulates that people must have reasonable grounds to fear for their life to avoid a murder charge, but amendments would extend protections to include any burglary at night, or a robbery attempt involving threats or violence.  

Cases would still be considered on an individual basis and with regard to “proportionality” by Italian judges, amid concern that automatic exceptions could be exploited.

THEFT IN FRANCE

  • Domestic burglaries decreased in France by 6%. 
  • 1,096,000 cases of theft happened in France in one year.

In 2013, there were 250,400 burglaries in France. That high has since decreased to 233,800, but not by much. 5 out of 1,000 homes are burgled in France. 

Regions with the highest burglary rate were the Île-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA).

Looking at figures from mainland France in 2017, there were 1,096,000 cases of theft without violence for example. This compared to 210,000 thefts with assault or threats.

The report points to a huge increase in 2017 of break-ins. 569,000 homeowners reported a break-in or an attempted break-in last year, 21 percent higher than 2016, which stood at 470,000.

The analysis shows that the Paris region and large towns with more than 100,000 residents were most affected by these types of crimes.

The percentage of failed break and enter robberies, however, is stable at 49 percent.

This means that in half the cases, the thieves were not successful in their robbery. In 33 percent of cases, the homeowners were not present when the robbery took place.

There are also specific seasons of the year that are burglary black spots. The worst times to forget to switch on your alarm are the summer months of July and August and the Christmas build up in December.

According to Juravin, the most likely places to get pickpocketed are close to major tourist sites: like the Eiffel Tower, Notre Dame, and the Champs-Elysées.  Americans in Paris should be particularly alert to thieves who commonly work near tourist attractions such as museums, monuments, restaurants, hotels, beaches, trains, train stations, airports, subways and target vehicles with non-local license plates.

Most, but not all pickpockets work in groups. They are often adolescents since it is extremely difficult for minors to go to jail here. They can be groups of young girls or boys and of all races.

Credits

Registered research DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2551844, 10.5281/zenodo.2567780

Research by: Don Karl Juravin | Don Juravin tweets | Don Juravin videos | Don Juravin page | Don Karl Juravin Linkedin | Don Juravin education | Don Juravin Pinterest | Don Juravin images | Don Juravin blogs | Don Karl Juravin Reddit | Don Juravin scholar citation | JURAVIN RESEARCH | Don Juravin writer | Don Karl Juravin blog | Google+ | Ted Talks | Don Juravin docs | Don Juravin answers | Don Karl Juravin local | Juravin blogging | Juravin posts | Don Juravin Reviews |

WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER TO DRIVE? USA, EUROPE OR ISRAEL?

WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER TO DRIVE? USA, EUROPE OR ISRAEL?

Don Karl Juravin compares the safety & health of 230 countries

Deaths From Road Traffic Injuries

Comparing USA Vs. Europe’s top countries (Germany, France, Italy) Vs. Israel relative per 100K population (lower is better)

USA, Europe, Israel Annual Deaths

Assuming the population of USA 321 million, Israel 8.4 million, Euro-top 210 million (Germany 82 million, France 67 million, Italy 61 million).

230 Countries Traffic Accident Death Facts 

Worldwide car accidents deaths

An unspoken staggering estimated 1.35 million people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes.

Worldwide Accident injuries: A huge toll on families and the economy are 20 to 50 million injuries from traffic accidents injured annually.

Road traffic crashes are a major cause of death among all age groups and the leading cause of death for children and young adults aged 5–29 years.

Income & car accidents

My research shows that the risk of dying in a road traffic crash is more than 3 times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries.
More than 90% of road traffic deaths occur in low-income and middle-income countries.

Road traffic injury death rates are highest in the African region. Even within high-income countries, people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are more likely to be involved in road traffic crashes.

Young male Vs. female driving

Males are more likely to be involved in road traffic crashes than females. About three quarters (73%) of all road traffic deaths occur among young males under the age of 25 years who are almost 3 times as likely to be killed in a road traffic crash as young females.

Speed

Every 1% increase in mean speed produces a 4% increase in the fatal crash risk and a 3% increase. An increase in average speed is directly related both to the likelihood of a crash occurring and to the severity of the consequences of the crash. For example, In the serious crash risk. 

Pedestrians

The death risk for pedestrians hit by car fronts rises rapidly (4.5 times from 50 km/h to 65 km/h).

Car-to-car side impacts

The fatality risk for car occupants is 85% at 65 km/h.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has set an ambitious target of halving the global number of deaths and injuries from road traffic crashes by 2020.

GDP cost of car accidents

Road traffic crashes cost most countries 3% of their gross domestic product.

Vulnerable road users

More than 50% of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists.

Traffic crashes cost most countries 3% of their gross domestic product.

Vulnerable road users: More than 50% of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists.

Mobile phone usage while driving

Drivers using mobile phones are 4 times more likely to be involved in a crash than drivers not using a mobile phone. Using a phone while driving slows reaction times (notably braking reaction time, but also a reaction to traffic signals), and makes it difficult to keep in the correct lane, and to keep the correct following distances.

Hands-free phones are not much safer than hand-held phone sets, and texting considerably increases the risk of a crash.

Seat-belt wearing reduces the risk of death among front-seat passengers by 40−65% and can reduce deaths among rear-seat car occupants by 25−75%. 

Only 57% of countries require seat-belts to be used in cars by both front-seat and rear-seat passengers (38% of low-income countries, 54% of middle-income countries and 83% of high-income countries). 

The use of child restraints (which includes infant seats, child seats, and booster seats) can reduce deaths of infants by as much as 70% and deaths of small children by between 54% and 80% in the event of a crash.

WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER TO DRIVE? USA, EUROPE OR ISRAEL?

Driving Resulting In Death Comparison

Comparing USA Vs. Europe’s top countries (Germany, France, Italy) Vs. Israel

Statistics of "WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER TO DRIVE? USA, EUROPE OR ISRAEL?"

Israel: 3.6
Euro-top: 5.17 (average)
Germany  4.3
France 5.1
Italy 6.1
USA: 10.6

Statistics of "WHICH COUNTRY IS SAFER TO DRIVE? USA, EUROPE OR ISRAEL?"

WINNER-SAFEST in Traffic Accident Deaths: ISRAEL

  • Israel‘s deaths from road traffic injuries are 1.61 times safer than the world average
  • Israel’s deaths from road traffic injuries are 1.44 times safer than Euro-top
  • Israel’s deaths from road traffic injuries are 2.94 times safer than the USA

Credits

Registered research DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.2551844, 10.5281/zenodo.2567780

Research by: Don Karl Juravin | Don Juravin tweets | Don Juravin videos | Don Juravin page | Don Karl Juravin Linkedin | Don Juravin education | Don Juravin Pinterest | Don Juravin images | Don Juravin blogs | Don Karl Juravin Reddit | Don Juravin scholar citation | JURAVIN RESEARCH | Don Juravin writer | Don Karl Juravin blog | Google+ | Ted Talks | Don Juravin docs | Don Juravin answers | Don Karl Juravin local | Juravin blogging | Juravin posts | Don Juravin Reviews

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